Hanging in There: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin BTC$90,104.40 has held steady above $90,000 in the last 24 hours, validating oversold signals flagged by technical tools like RSI. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) and major altcoins, including SOL, ETH, BNB, and TRX, are hanging in there, mostly flat to slightly up, while XRP fell about 2%. CRO and HASH are today's top gainers, both up 4%.

Analysts are buzzing with talk that this mix of extreme caution — highlighted by the Fear and Greed Index's "extreme fear" reading alongside signs of whale bargain hunting —and textbook oversold alerts, might spark a price rebound. In the Treasury options market, activity hints investors are betting on a dovish Fed repricing, which would be a welcome tailwind for risk assets.

The big question is: Will bitcoin retake $100,000 by year-end? Activity on Derive, a decentralized options-trading platform, puts the odds at about 30%. That said, there's also a 50% chance of BTC ends the year below $90,000.

Ether options have currently priced a 50% chance of ETH slipping below $2,900 by year-end, with only a 15% probability of a move above $4,000.

These probabilities reflect lingering concerns that macro headwinds and elevated volatility will cap any meaningful near-term upside, according to Sean Dawson, Derive's head of research.

Speaking of volatility, brace yourself: Volmex's bitcoin implied volatility index is still rising and hit its highest level since the Oct. 8 crash. Meanwhile, Wall Street's VIX index has climbed past 22%, a level it has only breached once since May — in October — signaling renewed uncertainty in traditional markets.

The upswing is natural as traders await Nvidia's quarterly earnings report later today, an event closely watched given the company's pivotal role in the AI boom. Adding to the anticipation are the Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes, set for release soon, and tomorrow's delayed September payrolls report, both poised to influence market direction.

In other news, Hyperliquid unveiled an upgrade that enables permissionless market deployment with significantly reduced fees. The upgrade is clearly aimed at broadening asset offerings and boosting liquidity on the exchange.

In traditional markets, business-development firm Blue Owl Capital halted redemptions for its private credit fund and merged it with a larger, publicly traded product, fueling concerns over the private credit industry. The dollar index topped 99.00, trading higher for the third straight day. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Crypto
  • Nov. 19: Firo (FIRO) hard fork network upgrade (v0.14.15.0).
  • Nov. 19, 11 a.m.: Avalanche (AVAX) Granite mainnet upgrade.
• Macro
  • Nov. 19, 2 p.m.: FOMC minutes for Oct. 28-29 meeting.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Nov. 19, Bullish (BLSH), pre-market, $0.10.
  • Nov. 19: Nvidia (NVDA), post-market, $1.25.

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Governance votes and calls
  • W$0.04030 to host a call on its latest ecosystem updates at 12 p.m.
• Unlocks
  • None
• Token Launches
  • Datagram Network (DGRAM) to list on Phemex with DGRAM/USDT.
  • GAIB (GAIB) to list on Bitget with GAIB/USDT pair.
  • Play Solana Token (PLAY) to list on BTSE with PLAYSOLANA/USDT pair.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Day 2 of 2: Digital Assets: Compliance, Enforcement & Regulatory Oversight (New York)
• Day 1 of 2: MoneyLIVE Payments Europe (Amsterdam)
• Day 1 of 2: Fintech NerdCon 2025 (Miami)

Market Movements

• BTC is down 1.06% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $91,491.64 (24hrs: -0.16%)
• ETH is down 0.37% at $3,085.65 (24hrs: -0.9%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 1.26% at 2,960.90 (24hrs: -0.11%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 4 bps at 2.95%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0066% (7.2369% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.20% at 99.75
• Gold futures are up 1.15% at $4,113.10
• Silver futures are up 3.14% at $52.10
• Nikkei 225 closed down 0.34% at 48,537.70
• Hang Seng closed down 0.38% at 25,830.65
• FTSE is up 0.14% at 9,565.93
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.11% at 5,528.37
• DJIA closed on Tuesday down 1.07% at 46,091.74
• S&P 500 closed down 0.83% at 6,617.32
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.21% at 22,432.85
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.13% at 30,036.46
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.54% at 3,070.90
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 0.4 bps at 4.125%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.27% at 6,657.75
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.32% at 24,673.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.11% at 46,234.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 58.91% (-0.21%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03384 (0.71%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,079 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $37.95
• Total fees: 3.73 BTC / $342,192
• CME Futures Open Interest: 135,535 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 22.3 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 6.13%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows daily price action in the ether-bitcoin (ETH/BTC) ratio on Binance.
• The ratio is pushing against the upper boundary of a three-month-long descending channel.
• A potential breakout would mean ether outperformance ahead.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Tuesday at $261.79 (-0.82%)
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $76.6 (+0.01%), +1.01% at $77.37
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $25.58 (+2.16%)
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $37.76 (+2.75%), +2.75% at $38.80
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.88 (+3.21%), -0.17% at $11.86
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.94 (+0.43%), +0.5% at $14.01
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.43 (+4.33%)
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.81 (+1.89%), +0.56% at $10.87
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $41.83 (+2.22%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $15.65 (-2.13%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $206.8 (+5.82%), -0.68% at $205.40
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $21.51 (+7.44%)
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $10.55 (+2.53%), -0.38% at $10.51
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.92 (+12.33%), 3.95% at $3.03
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.93 (+1.58%), +4.15% at $2.01

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$372.8 million
• Cumulative net flows: $58.21 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.32 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$74.2 million
• Cumulative net flows: $12.89 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.28 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

• From $140K Call to $85K Put: Bitcoin Positioning Reverses Completely (CoinDesk): Deribit’s chief commercial officer said traders are showing caution into the year-end, with heavy volume in short-dated puts and rising volatility skew signaling demand for downside protection.
• Hyperliquid Unveils HIP-3 Growth Mode, Slashing Fees by 90% to Boost New Markets (CoinDesk): The new feature cuts all-in taker fees by over 90% for newly launched markets, and can be activated on a per-asset basis by deployers, permissionlessly and without centralized gatekeeping.
• Japan Bond Yields Rise as Likely Stimulus Package Sparks Fiscal Concerns (The Wall Street Journal): Japan’s stimulus push follows a surprise economic contraction, and investors worry it will worsen debt risks and complicate the central bank’s cautious rate stance.
• BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, Posts Record One-Day Outflow of $523.2 Million (CoinDesk): The amount is the biggest since trading began in early 2024, and spot ETF holders now sit just above their aggregate entry level of just over $90,000.