Bitcoin Likely to Head Even Lower, but Seeds of Next Bull Move Are Being Sown

"I wouldn't even be in this situation if it wasn't for you. You brought down so much f---ing heat on me." — Robert De Niro as Ace Rothstein to Joe Pesci's Nicky Santoro in Martin Scorsese's "Casino."

Bitcoiners could be forgiven for blaming the rest of crypto for the bear move that took the price of BTC down more than 20% from a record high above $109,000 just five weeks ago to as low as $87,000 earlier on Tuesday.

Bitcoin touched that record a day ahead of the presidential inauguration amid a speculative frenzy in memecoins that hit its dénouement as the Trump team thought it a good idea to launch tokens associated with the incoming president and first lady. The tokens initially rocketed higher before quickly crashing and leaving just about everyone except insiders with massive losses.

SOL, the native token of the Solana blockchain on which much of the memecoins were created, is down more than 50% since then, leading the plunge in the major cryptos since that January weekend.

Bitcoin bulls were promised a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and instead got TRUMP and MELANIA.

Bybit hack delivers blow

Even with the evisceration in memecoins and associated carnage in the broader crypto market over the past weeks, bitcoin managed to mostly stay in a tight range not that far below its record. As recently as 96 hours ago, the world's largest crypto was on the rise and seemed set to retake the $100,000 level.

Then the Bybit hack hit.

While bitcoiners were quick to point out the exploit had noting to do with Bitcoin and instead once again demonstrated the inherent weaknesses in Ethereum's technology, the plunge in ETH (down 15% and counting since) and the rest of crypto spread to BTC.

Bulls turn bear

"Our expectations for this cycle are much higher than $108,000, so we tell ourselves we couldn't possibly have peaked already," wrote self-described permabull StackHodler on X Tuesday. "We have to go higher in 2025, right," he continued. "The truth is, nobody knows for sure. We just went through the short term holder realized price of $92,000 ... We may need to revisit the 200 day moving average around $82,000."

"DO NOT buy the dip yet, a move to the low $80s is on," wrote Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick, who previously has forecast $200,000 BTC by year-end. "Before buying the dip is attractive I think we get a $1B ETF outflow day (current worst ever day -$583M)."

Seeds of next bull move being sown

Though not getting hit nearly as hard as crypto, traditional markets have been stumbling as well. As measured by the S&P 500 Index, U.S. stocks last week had their worst week since the Trump inauguration. The tech-heavy Nasdaq peaked in December and today sits 5% below that level.

Pick your excuse: Tariffs, DOGE (not the token, the Musk-led government cost-cutting regime), or just a cooling in previously very perky animal spirits, but rate markets have taken notice.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has pulled all the way back to 4.32% from 4.80% just ahead of Trump taking office. And expectations for easier monetary Federal Monetary policy have surged. The chances of a May rate cut have more than doubled to 30% over the past week and the chances of two rate cuts by June have more than tripled to 15%, according to CME FedWatch.

"Lower U.S. Treasury yields are a huge longer-term positive for BTC," concluded Kendrick.