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Bitcoin Flirts With $30K During Asia Trading Day as Luna Foundation Guard Fights to Defend UST Peg
Glassnode analyst says change in exchange balance is due to LFG using bitcoin reserves to defend stablecoin peg.
By Sam Reynolds
Updated May 11, 2023, 6:57 p.m. Published May 11, 2022, 8:26 a.m.
Bitcoin (BTC) was down over 3.5% throughout the trading day in Asia, briefly touching the $30,230 mark, according to the CoinDesk price index, as the Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) moves the entirety of its reserves to bitcoin exchanges to defend its UST stablecoin’s 1:1 dollar peg.
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- LFG’s reserve balance has declined from 80,394 bitcoin to zero, and the majority has been deposited onto the Gemini exchange, according to Glassnode data.
- James “Checkmate” Check, an analyst with Glassnode, said he believes Gemini is the custodian for market maker operations, or for the sale of this bitcoin. Check said it's not clear how much of the reserve was sold or loaned to market makers.
- The amount of bitcoin on exchanges is at a high not seen since November 2017, but Check said market conditions are very different and it's tough to make a comparison.
- “It is not the same as 2017 in any way really, a completely different mechanism and set of entities at play. What we are observing is closer to a miniature version of George Soros attacking the peg of the British Pound, where the LFG is playing the role of the Bank of England (with a similar result it seems),” he said in an email to CoinDesk.
- Meanwhile, Terra's LUNA token has dropped nearly 85% in the past 24 hours and is currently trading at approximately $4.50, according to CoinGecko data.
- UST is currently at 0.35, down 60% on the day, calling into question the success of LFG’s operation.
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Coinbase Sees Crypto Recovery Ahead as Liquidity Improves and Fed Rate Cut Odds Climb
The crypto exchange also took note of a so-called AI bubble that continues to go strong and a weaker U.S. dollar.
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- Coinbase Institutional is seeing a potential December recovery in crypto, citing improving liquidity and a shift in macroeconomic conditions that could favor risk assets like bitcoin.
- The firm's optimism is driven by rising odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets pricing in a 93% chance easing next week, and improving liquidity conditions.
- Several recent institutional developments, including Vanguard's crypto ETF policy reversal and Bank of America's greenlighting of crypto allocations, have contributed to bitcoin's rebound from recent lows.
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