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Bitcoin Rallies From Oversold Levels; Faces Resistance at $40K
The short-term trend is improving after a series of lower price highs since May.
Updated Mar 6, 2023, 3:39 p.m. Published Jun 10, 2021, 11:28 a.m.
Bitcoin (BTC) broke above initial resistance at $36,000 after a near 13% rise on Wednesday. The next resistance level is seen at $40,000, which capped upside moves over the past two weeks.
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The short-term trend is improving after a series of lower price highs since May. The weekly chart is showing initial signs of downside exhaustion, which could stabilize the month-long corrective phase.
- Bitcoin returned above the 100-day moving average on the four-hour chart and is approaching short-term overbought levels.
- Buyers could remain active towards $40,000, which is also near the 200-day moving average. The cryptocurrency was trading around $38,000 at press time.
- If a pullback occurs, bitcoin should find initial support around $34,000. Lower support around $30,000 was tested multiple times over the past two weeks as buyers return.
- Bitcoin will need to break free of the short-term consolidation phase to maintain the bullish uptrend. For now, recoveries appear limited given strong overhead resistance.
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Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holders Hit Cyclical Low as Sell Pressure Finally Eases
Long-term holder supply bottomed when bitcoin sank to $80K, signaling that the wave of spot-driven selling may be nearing exhaustion as prices rebound to $90K.
What to know:
- Long-term holder supply fell to 14.33M BTC in November, its lowest level since March, coinciding with bitcoin’s $80K correction low.
- The rebound to $90K suggests the bulk of spot-driven selling from seasoned holders has passed after a 36% peak-to-trough decline.
- Unlike prior cycles, LTH behavior in 2025 shows more measured distribution rather than blow-off-top capitulation, signaling a shift in market structure.
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