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Asia Morning Briefing: After CZ’s Pardon, Odds Rise for Sam Bankman-Fried’s Second Chance
It's still a long shot that FTX's Sam Bankman-Fried will be pardoned, but odds have spiked as Binance's Changpeng Zhao has its criminal record deleted.
Oct 24, 2025, 2:25 a.m.
What to know:
- Odds of a presidential pardon for former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried increased slightly after Binance founder Changpeng Zhao received a pardon from Donald Trump.
- Bitcoin rose 2.7% to around $110,700, while Ether is trading near $3,850 amid speculation of a significant breakout.
- Gold prices surged nearly 50% this year, driven by geopolitical tensions and central bank demand, with a forecasted price of $4,400 by 2026.
Good Morning, Asia. Here's what's making news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk's Crypto Daybook Americas.
Will Sam Bankman-Fried, the former CEO of FTX, be pardoned?
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Bettors on Polymarket say its a long shot, but odds have jumped by 5 percentage points to 12% after Binance founder Changpeng 'CZ' Zhao was pardoned by Trump Thursday U.S. time. Over on Kalshi, there was a larger jump, where a contract asking about a SBF pardon rose by 9 percentage points to 16%.
Earlier this year SBF went on a media charm offensive with an appearance on Tucker Carlson's podcast as part of a broader effort to reshape his public image and lay the groundwork for a potential presidential pardon.
The former FTX CEO has leaned into conservative media and claims he was punished for backing Republicans, while his parents quietly court allies in President Donald Trump’s circle in hopes of winning clemency for their son’s 25-year prison sentence.
Even though the odds that SBF will get a pardon are currently low, Polymarket traders were caught off guard by Trump's decision to pardon CZ.
For most of the contract’s life, the odds of a pardon hovered between 20% and 40%, signaling broad skepticism that any leniency was coming.
For as accurate as research shows prediction markets, sometimes they miss things by underpricing odds of outcomes. Maybe they’re doing the same with SBF, because a surprise pardon would be the kind of finale twist The Altruists – the upcoming Netflix series about the collapse of FTX – writers would cut for being too far-fetched, right up until it happens.
Market Movement:
BTC: Bitcoin rose 2.7% to around $110,700 on Thursday, rebounding from Wednesday’s drop as markets rallied ahead of Friday’s September inflation report.
ETH: Ether is trading near $3,850 as analysts point to a potential Wyckoff re-accumulation phase, with rising institutional demand fueling speculation of an $8,000–$10,000 breakout later this cycle.
Gold: Gold is trading around $4,126, up nearly 50% this year after hitting a record above $4,000, as geopolitical tensions, Fed policy uncertainty, and strong central bank buying drive demand, though Morgan Stanley warns high prices could slow jewelry and reserve purchases even as it raises its 2026 forecast to $4,400.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets rose Friday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.78%, after the White House confirmed Trump-Xi talks next week.
Elsewhere in Crypto:
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What to know:
- As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
- GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
- Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.
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Coinbase Sees Crypto Recovery Ahead as Liquidity Improves and Fed Rate Cut Odds Climb
The crypto exchange also took note of a so-called AI bubble that continues to go strong and a weaker U.S. dollar.
알아야 할 것:
- Coinbase Institutional is seeing a potential December recovery in crypto, citing improving liquidity and a shift in macroeconomic conditions that could favor risk assets like bitcoin.
- The firm's optimism is driven by rising odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets pricing in a 93% chance easing next week, and improving liquidity conditions.
- Several recent institutional developments, including Vanguard's crypto ETF policy reversal and Bank of America's greenlighting of crypto allocations, have contributed to bitcoin's rebound from recent lows.
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