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Bitcoin Onchain Data Show Bullish Undercurrents
The market may appear boring, but under the surface, the onchain data is quietly aligning in favor of the bulls.
Bullish bitcoin undercurrents lurk below the boringly calm crypto waters, setting the stage for a potential outsized price rally.
The percentage of bitcoin's circulating supply active onchain within the last month fell to a record low of 5.4% early this week, according to Blockware Solutions and Glassnode. In other words, fewer coins are changing hands, indicating supply-side weakness. At press time, bitcoin's circulating supply was 19.48 million.
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"Price is set at the margin, which means those who trade Bitcoin back and forth drive short-term price action. As supply-side illiquidity continues to increase, as indicated by fewer supply exchanging hands, any demand catalyst will send the price skyrocketing," Blockware Solutions said in an email.
The percentage of circulating supply that has remained inactive for over a year stands near 70%.
Buy and hold remains a preferred strategy in the crypto market, with the so-called long-term holders controlling over 75% of the circulating supply. Glassnode defines long-term holders as addresses that hold coins for at least 155 days.
Awaiting bullish catalysts
Besides the potential spot bitcoin-exchange-traded fund (ETF) launch, which is several months away, macro and regulatory concerns favor the bears.
"The macro scenario has never been murkier and the 'higher for longer' general mood could keep a lid on risk assets, including crypto," David Lawant, head of research at FalconX, said in a note to subscribers on Tuesday.
"There's also some potential selling pressure coming from government-seized wallets, chapter 11 portfolios, and large token unlocks over the next 6-12 months. Finally, there's uncertainty on whether more regulatory action is coming in the U.S.," Lawant added.
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Coinbase Sees Crypto Recovery Ahead as Liquidity Improves and Fed Rate Cut Odds Climb
The crypto exchange also took note of a so-called AI bubble that continues to go strong and a weaker U.S. dollar.
What to know:
- Coinbase Institutional is seeing a potential December recovery in crypto, citing improving liquidity and a shift in macroeconomic conditions that could favor risk assets like bitcoin.
- The firm's optimism is driven by rising odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets pricing in a 93% chance easing next week, and improving liquidity conditions.
- Several recent institutional developments, including Vanguard's crypto ETF policy reversal and Bank of America's greenlighting of crypto allocations, have contributed to bitcoin's rebound from recent lows.
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