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Has Bitcoin Peaked? BlackRock BTC Spot ETF Traders Lose Appetite for Upside
Bitcoin has been trading sideways after reaching record highs above $110,000 last week.
What to know:
- Bitcoin has been trading sideways after reaching record highs above $110,000 last week.
- Market sentiment is shifting as the put-call skew for BlackRock's bitcoin ETF options has bounced to zero, indicating reduced bullish bets.
- Traders on Deribit are showing similar caution, with short-term call options now trading at par with puts.
Bitcoin has mostly traded sideways since printing record highs above $110,000 last week.
The loss of upward momentum is now accompanied by signs waning bullish sentiment among market participants trading options tied to BlackRock's spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
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That's evident from the one-year put-call skew, which reflects how the market prices in volatility risk for put options, offering downside protection relative to calls, representing bullish bets. Negative values represent a bullish bias while positive values suggest fears of downside.
IBIT's one-year skew has bounced to nearly zero from the four-month low of minus 3.8 two weeks ago, according to data source Market Chameleon. In other words, IBIT options traders are no longer chasing upside via options.
Perhaps they are expecting a pullback. Similar mood is evident in Deribit-listed options where the short-term call skew has weakened, meaning calls expiring in the next two weeks are trading at par with puts, according to data source Amberdata.
Read more: Bitcoin's $95K-$105K Range in Focus as $10B BTC Options Expiry Looms
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Coinbase Sees Crypto Recovery Ahead as Liquidity Improves and Fed Rate Cut Odds Climb
The crypto exchange also took note of a so-called AI bubble that continues to go strong and a weaker U.S. dollar.
Wat u moet weten:
- Coinbase Institutional is seeing a potential December recovery in crypto, citing improving liquidity and a shift in macroeconomic conditions that could favor risk assets like bitcoin.
- The firm's optimism is driven by rising odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets pricing in a 93% chance easing next week, and improving liquidity conditions.
- Several recent institutional developments, including Vanguard's crypto ETF policy reversal and Bank of America's greenlighting of crypto allocations, have contributed to bitcoin's rebound from recent lows.
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