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Bitcoin's Key Trends Suggest Price Still Has Plenty of Room to Run
Despite some investors calling Q4 the end of the cycle, key long-term indicators suggest the bull market may just be getting started.
Oct 4, 2025, 6:00 p.m.
What to know:
- The 200-week moving average (200-WMA), bitcoin’s only consistently upward-trending metric, has just breached $53,000, while the realized price has climbed above it at $54,000.
- In past cycles, as long as the realized price stays above the 200-WMA, bitcoin has tended to push higher.
Many investors are currently viewing bitcoin through an end-of-cycle lens, suggesting that Q4 could mark the close of the current market cycle. However, two key metrics point to the possibility that the bull market may actually be in its early stages.
Glassnode data shows that the 200-week moving average (200WMA), which smooths bitcoin’s price over a long-term horizon and has historically only trended upwards, has just breached $53,000.
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Meanwhile, the realized price, the average price at which all bitcoin in circulation last moved onchain, has just risen above the 200-WMA at $54,000.
Looking back at previous cycles, we see a consistent pattern. In bull markets, the realized price tends to stay above the 200-WMA, while in bear markets, the opposite occurs.
For example, in the 2017 and 2021 bull markets, the realized price steadily climbed higher and widened its gap above the 200-WMA, before eventually collapsing below it and signaling the start of the bear markets.
While, during the downturn of 2022, the realized price fell below the 200-WMA, it has only recently moved above it. Historically, once the realized price remains above this long-term moving average, bitcoin has tended to push higher as the bull market progresses.
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Coinbase Sees Crypto Recovery Ahead as Liquidity Improves and Fed Rate Cut Odds Climb
The crypto exchange also took note of a so-called AI bubble that continues to go strong and a weaker U.S. dollar.
需要了解的:
- Coinbase Institutional is seeing a potential December recovery in crypto, citing improving liquidity and a shift in macroeconomic conditions that could favor risk assets like bitcoin.
- The firm's optimism is driven by rising odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets pricing in a 93% chance easing next week, and improving liquidity conditions.
- Several recent institutional developments, including Vanguard's crypto ETF policy reversal and Bank of America's greenlighting of crypto allocations, have contributed to bitcoin's rebound from recent lows.
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