Retail Bitcoin Traders Are Showing Most Fear Since Oct. 20 Crypto Crash: Santiment

Analysts on Oct. 30 (UTC) pointed to long-term trend tests, crowd fear and a first support zone, while CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis data model showed heavier trading and a tight range near support.

Analyst comments

Altcoin Daily pointed out that it’s common in bull markets for bitcoin to retest the 50-week moving average, placing that long-term guide around $103,000; a “retest” simply means price dipping back to a widely watched trendline to see if buyers step in again.

Santiment said the dip toward $107,000 on Oct. 30 sparked a surge in social posts calling for sub-$100,000 prices. In its chart, blue bars point to about $50,000–$100,000 outcomes, and red bars track $150,000–$200,000 calls; the caption notes retail fear at the highest since the Oct. 10 crypto crash and argues markets often move against crowded expectations.

CoinDesk Senior Analyst Omkar Godbole wrote that $97,000 “seems to be the first support.” His chart sketches a broad consolidation with a lower boundary pointing to the high-$90,000s, which is why he marks that $97,000 region as a place where declines have previously stalled.

Technical analysis highlights

• Performance and correlation: Up 0.98% to $107,247 over 24 hours with just 0.78 percentage point outperformance versus the CoinDesk Index (CD5) benchmark, indicating bitcoin broadly tracked the market.
• Path and range: Earlier weakness saw a decline from $111,909 to $107,804 (about 4.0%, $4,497 range). The sharpest leg ran from $110,826 to an intraday low at $108,048.
• Heaviest sell burst: The largest wave printed 31,143 bitcoin traded (about 185% of the 24-hour average).
• Compression zone: Price oscillated between $107,650 and $108,225, creating a tight band just above $107,000.
• Broader band referenced: our model's technical analysis cites $110,000 to $117,800 as part of strategic repositioning rather than panic.

Patterns and positioning

• Compression near a floor: A narrow band around $107,000 to $108,000 often signals the market catching its breath while buyers and sellers reset.
• Distribution vs. accumulation: Above-trend activity alongside long-term holder selling suggests supply has been meeting demand into strength, which can cap rallies until absorbed.
• Overhead pushback: Prior rejections around $111,650 and $112,000 to $113,000 show where sellers have been active.

Support vs. resistance: the map

• Support: $107,400 to $108,000 as the near-term shelf; the 200-day moving average near $109,000 is a reference level.
• Resistance: $111,650 first, then $113,600; prior pushback also appeared around $112,000 to $113,000.

Volume read

• Overall: 60.5% above the seven-day average across the day.
• Heaviest bar: 31,143 bitcoin (about 185% of the 24-hour average) on the sharp sell wave, consistent with distribution pressure.
• Range participation: Elevated but steadier prints during the compression band point to positioning rather than a fresh trend.

Targets and risk framing

• If resistance is reclaimed: A sustained move above $111,650 points to checkpoints around $115,800 to $117,500.
• If the floor breaks: A break below $107,400 risks extension toward $102,000 to $104,000 demand zones highlighted as prior accumulation areas.
• Tactical lens: With a tight range and mixed flows, many traders wait for a clean move out of $107,000 to $108,000 or a decisive reclaim over $111,650 before leaning harder either way.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.