Crypto Markets Today: BTC Wilts After First Red October Since 2018

Bitcoin BTC$91,826.96 is trading under pressure after registering its first October loss since 2018. Charts indicate growing risk of a deeper decline to $100,000 or below, with consistent bias for put options in the options market.

The broader market continues to see capital outflows, as is evident from the decline in futures open interest.

According to Alex Kuptsikevich, the chief market analyst at The FxPro, the focus is on BTC's 200-day simple moving average at around $107,000.

"The ongoing testing of support since the second half of October is a significant reason for our caution regarding the market in the near term," he said in an email. "The most pessimistic scenario would be realised in the event of simultaneous pressure on the stock markets and a strengthening of the dollar. But optimists may also note the sequence of higher lows at the peaks of the sell-off."

Derivatives Positioning

By Omkar Godbole

• BTC and ETH futures open interest (OI) remained largely unchanged in the past 24 hours, while OI in altcoins, including XRP, HYPE and DOGE dropped, indicating capital outflows from the broader market.
• However, the OI-normalized cumulative volume delta for BTC and ETH has declined in tandem with the broader market, suggesting that a bias towards short positions has driven the OI higher.
• Volmex's bitcoin and ether 30-day volatility indexes are on the rise again, pointing to renewed expectations for price turbulence.
• On the CME, BTC and ETH's annualized three-month basis remains locked below 10%. Positioning in ether futures and options remains elevated relative to bitcoin.
• On Deribit, BTC and ETH options show a bias for put options in the short- and near-dated expiries.

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

• A woeful week of price action extended Monday with altcoins including ENA$0.2750, doublezero (2Z) and plasma XPL$0.1728 all facing heavy sell pressure.
• ENA and 2Z both slumped by 7% over the past 24 hours to compound a 30% decline over the past seven days. Plasma trades at $0.27, a stark contrast from this time last month when it was hovering around $0.90 the week after it went live.
• There is one reason for restrained optimism within the altcoin market: The average relative strength index is at 37.51/100, indicating oversold conditions that could lead to a relief rally.
• Much of that will depend on the direction of bitcoin BTC$91,826.96 and ether ETH$3,141.30, both of which are down to a lesser extent on Monday as they challenge levels of support at $107,500 and $3,700, respectively.
• A break to below these levels would cause a ripple effect across the altcoin market due to varying levels of liquidity which, coupled with potential derivatives liquidations, could spur a cascading effect.
• If bitcoin can move back above the $112,000 mark it would relieve bearish sentiment and give altcoins an opportunity to challenge previously resilient levels of resistance.
• The entire crypto market cap is at $3.59 trillion having lost $600 billion worth of value since Oct. 6.