CryptoQuant says bitcoin could reach $112,000 if Fed turns dovish and key resistance levels break

Bitcoin’s recent relief rally could gain momentum in the coming weeks if the Federal Reserve adopts a more dovish stance at today’s policy meeting, according to onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant. The firm said bitcoin could move toward $112,000 in the near term, but only if it clears two key resistance levels first.

“Bitcoin would have to clear $99,000 and $102,000 levels first” for it to potentially reach $112,000 in one to three months if today’s Fed announcement is positive, CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno told The Block. Moreno called those levels “critical” price resistances.

By a positive Fed announcement, Moreno means not just a rate cut today, but also how quickly the Fed signals it will cut next year and what it projects for inflation. If those signals are supportive, he expects bitcoin to first test $99,000, after which “it will depend if traders take profits or not,” he said.

“If selling pressure remains low, a relief rally could push bitcoin as high as $99,000. This level is the lower band of the Trader On-chain Realized Price bands, which is a price resistance during bear markets,” CryptoQuant wrote in a report on Wednesday. “After this level, the key price resistances are $102,000 (one-year moving average), and $112,000 (the Trader On-chain Realized price).”

Wall Street reportedly largely expects the Fed to cut rates by a quarter point this afternoon, but uncertainty remains around how quickly rates might fall in 2026.

Bitcoin's relief rally

Bitcoin has recovered from around $80,000 on Nov. 21 to about $92,500 today, mainly because selling pressure has eased, according to CryptoQuant. The firm pointed to declining BTC deposits into exchanges — down to 21,000 BTC today from 88,000 BTC on Nov. 21 — as evidence that sell-side activity has slowed.

“Exchange deposits started to increase after bitcoin’s previous all-time high of $126,000 and peaked before it fell as low as $80,000. Lower exchange deposits ease the downward pressure on prices in the short-term,” CryptoQuant noted.

The firm also highlighted reduced activity from large holders, who were heavy contributors to exchange inflows during the downturn. “The share of total deposits from large players has declined from a 24-hour average high of 47% in mid-November to 21% as of today. At the same time, the average deposit has shrunk 36% from 1.1 BTC in November 22 to 0.7 BTC currently,” it said.

Downward pressure also eased as large investors and short-term holders realized significant losses, according to CryptoQuant. On Nov. 13, new and old whales realized $646 million in losses — the largest since July — as prices first crossed below $100,000, the firm said. Since then, these investors have realized a cumulative net loss of $3.2 billion, it added. “Historically, selling pressure eases when market participants realize they have incurred heavy losses,” CryptoQuant noted.