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Bitcoin Retakes $67K, Dollar Index Rally Stalls as Beige Book Supports Fed Rate Cuts
Beige Book bolsters hope for quarter-point Fed rate cuts in November and December.
Updated Oct 24, 2024, 8:11 a.m. Published Oct 24, 2024, 5:49 a.m.
- Beige Book bolsters hope for quarter-point Fed rate cuts in November and December.
- The rally in the DXY stalled after the Beige Book report, paving the way for BTC recovery.
Bitcoin is back above $67,000 as the Federal Reserve's (Fed) latest Beige Book survey of economic conditions across the U.S. released Wednesday portrayed a subdued outlook, bolstering the case for further rate reductions in the coming months.
The latest edition had nine out of 12 regional banks reporting stagnant or slightly weak economic activity since early September. Most districts witnessed a decline in manufacturing activity, with some signs of moderation in consumer demand.
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Inflation or cost of living continued to moderate as selling prices increased slightly or modestly in most districts. Employment increased somewhat, but hiring focused primarily on replacement rather than growth. Meanwhile, multiple Districts pointed to slower wage increases.
On balance, the sluggish outlook contradicts the hotter-than-expected September jobs report and opens door for further rate cuts by the Fed.
Bitcoin has recovered from the overnight lows under $65,200 to trade 1% higher on the day at $67,300 at press time, and the dollar index (DXY) rally has stalled. The index has pulled back to 104.30 from the overnight high of 104.57, according to data source TradingView.
"Those [Beige book] comments got the markets' attention and helped to solidify the belief that another 25 bps cut is coming in November and a high chance of one in December. The turn in the dollar was across the board afterward," ForexLive noted in the blog post.
Several Fed officials, including chairman Jerome Powell, cited the dour Beige Book outlook as one of their reasons for cutting the benchmark borrowing cost by 50 basis points to the 4.75%-5% range in September.
Markets were quick to price an additional 75 basis points of easing by the year's end. Those hopes, however, were dented by the upbeat September jobs data and the hotter-than-expected September inflation report.
8:10 UTC: Corrects the overnight low to $65,200.
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The crypto exchange also took note of a so-called AI bubble that continues to go strong and a weaker U.S. dollar.
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- Coinbase Institutional is seeing a potential December recovery in crypto, citing improving liquidity and a shift in macroeconomic conditions that could favor risk assets like bitcoin.
- The firm's optimism is driven by rising odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets pricing in a 93% chance easing next week, and improving liquidity conditions.
- Several recent institutional developments, including Vanguard's crypto ETF policy reversal and Bank of America's greenlighting of crypto allocations, have contributed to bitcoin's rebound from recent lows.
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