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Bitcoin Retakes $67K, Dollar Index Rally Stalls as Beige Book Supports Fed Rate Cuts
Beige Book bolsters hope for quarter-point Fed rate cuts in November and December.
Updated Oct 24, 2024, 8:11 a.m. Published Oct 24, 2024, 5:49 a.m.
- Beige Book bolsters hope for quarter-point Fed rate cuts in November and December.
- The rally in the DXY stalled after the Beige Book report, paving the way for BTC recovery.
Bitcoin is back above $67,000 as the Federal Reserve's (Fed) latest Beige Book survey of economic conditions across the U.S. released Wednesday portrayed a subdued outlook, bolstering the case for further rate reductions in the coming months.
The latest edition had nine out of 12 regional banks reporting stagnant or slightly weak economic activity since early September. Most districts witnessed a decline in manufacturing activity, with some signs of moderation in consumer demand.
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Inflation or cost of living continued to moderate as selling prices increased slightly or modestly in most districts. Employment increased somewhat, but hiring focused primarily on replacement rather than growth. Meanwhile, multiple Districts pointed to slower wage increases.
On balance, the sluggish outlook contradicts the hotter-than-expected September jobs report and opens door for further rate cuts by the Fed.
Bitcoin has recovered from the overnight lows under $65,200 to trade 1% higher on the day at $67,300 at press time, and the dollar index (DXY) rally has stalled. The index has pulled back to 104.30 from the overnight high of 104.57, according to data source TradingView.
"Those [Beige book] comments got the markets' attention and helped to solidify the belief that another 25 bps cut is coming in November and a high chance of one in December. The turn in the dollar was across the board afterward," ForexLive noted in the blog post.
Several Fed officials, including chairman Jerome Powell, cited the dour Beige Book outlook as one of their reasons for cutting the benchmark borrowing cost by 50 basis points to the 4.75%-5% range in September.
Markets were quick to price an additional 75 basis points of easing by the year's end. Those hopes, however, were dented by the upbeat September jobs data and the hotter-than-expected September inflation report.
8:10 UTC: Corrects the overnight low to $65,200.
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Japan’s Higher Rates Puts Bitcoin in the Crosshairs of a Yen Carry Unwind
A stronger yen typically coincides with de-risking across macro portfolios, and that dynamic could tighten liquidity conditions that recently helped bitcoin rebound from November’s lows.
What to know:
- The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates to 0.75% at its December meeting, the highest since 1995, affecting global markets including cryptocurrencies.
- A stronger yen could lead to de-risking in macro portfolios, impacting liquidity conditions that have supported bitcoin's recent recovery.
- Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated a high probability of a rate hike, with officials prepared for further tightening if their economic outlook supports it.
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