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Crypto Market Sell-Off Was Driven by Retail Investors, JPMorgan Says
Crypto markets have seen significant profit taking in recent weeks with retail investors playing a bigger role than institutions, the report said.
- JPMorgan maintained its cautious view on crypto markets.
- The bank said retail investors have been taking profits in recent weeks.
- The market is still faced with headwinds such as elevated positioning, the report said.
Wall Street giant JPMorgan (JPM) said it's keeping its cautious stance on cryptocurrency markets in the near term due to a lack of positive catalysts and because the retail impulse is disappearing.
The bank notes that retail investors sold both crypto and equity assets in April and spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen outflows. The three headwinds the bank has already identified – elevated positioning, high bitcoin prices versus gold and versus the estimated bitcoin production cost, and subdued crypto venture capital (VC) funding – are also still in place.
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Cryptocurrency markets have seen significant profit taking in recent weeks, with retail investors playing a bigger part in the sell-off than institutional investors, the report said. Bitcoin fell 16% in April, the biggest monthly decline since June 2022.
Investors sold U.S.-based spot bitcoin ETFs at the fastest pace ever on Wednesday. The 11 ETFs saw a cumulative net outflow of $563.7 million, the largest since the funds started trading on Jan. 11.
With regards to institutional investors, “it has been mostly momentum traders such as commodity trading advisors (CTAs) or other quantitative funds taking profit on previous extreme long positions in both bitcoin and gold,” analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote.
Still, analysis of the futures market suggests a “more limited position reduction by other institutional investors outside quantitative funds and CTAs,” the authors wrote.
Read more: Bitcoin Could Drop Further to as Low as $50K, Standard Chartered Says
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Coinbase Sees Crypto Recovery Ahead as Liquidity Improves and Fed Rate Cut Odds Climb
The crypto exchange also took note of a so-called AI bubble that continues to go strong and a weaker U.S. dollar.
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- Coinbase Institutional is seeing a potential December recovery in crypto, citing improving liquidity and a shift in macroeconomic conditions that could favor risk assets like bitcoin.
- The firm's optimism is driven by rising odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets pricing in a 93% chance easing next week, and improving liquidity conditions.
- Several recent institutional developments, including Vanguard's crypto ETF policy reversal and Bank of America's greenlighting of crypto allocations, have contributed to bitcoin's rebound from recent lows.
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