Altcoin Season Returns as Ether Treasuries Surge, BTC Dominance Slips: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Altcoin season, a period marked by notable outperformance of ether ETH$3,054.02 and other alternative cryptocurrencies relative to bitcoin BTC$90,170.12, may finally be upon us. That's the message from CoinMarketCap's Altcoin Season Index, which has crossed above 50 for the first time since December.

Ether and other layer-1 coins could be standout performers as a result of the passage of the GENIUS Act in the U.S. The Act provides regulatory framework for stablecoin issuance that could draw institutional demand to Ethereum and other layer-1 blockchains that host billions of dollars worth of the tokens.

"Treasuries are looking to ETH and other L1's such as SOL, XRP and ADA to become what BTC is to the likes of Strategy and Metaplanet," Singapore-based QCP Capital said.

Already, companies including SharpLink Gaming and Bitmine Immersion Technologies have said they plan to build ether treasuries in the way Strategy has with bitcoin. Together they hold more than 500,000 ETH. And just today, newly established The Ether Machine said it plans to go public with a 400,000 ETH treasury.

The trend will likely accelerate if U.S. regulators approve BlackRock's plan to add staking to its spot ether ETF. Staking could enhance ether's appeal as an internet bond, prompting some funds to shift from bitcoin ETFs to ether ETFs. Technical charts tied to cross-pairs, such as ETH/BTC and XRP/BTC, are already hinting at big rallies ahead.

Speaking of bitcoin, its momentum has weakened since early last week, leaving prices directionless near $120,000. That's led to a sharp decline in its share of the crypto market.

"The fall in Bitcoin dominance is a major technical and psychological shift, suggesting a structural rotation into altcoins is underway," Valentine Fournier, lead analyst at BRN, said in an email. "This transition is happening in the context of still-strong ETF flows, growing institutional participation, and the absence of any macro headwinds."

Still, on-chain activity continues to paint a bullish picture. According to Glassnode, wallets of all sizes are back in a BTC accumulation mode. "Even >10K BTC whales are participating at levels last seen in Dec 2024. The alignment across wallet sizes suggests broad-based conviction behind the current BTC uptrend," Glassnode said on X.

In key news, a report by Barron's said the U.S. public pension giant OPERS disclosed in its Q2 2025 13F filing that it increased its holdings by 171,441 shares in Palantir and 21,499 shares in bitcoin holder Strategy.

In traditional markets, the yen, a risk-off currency, strengthened after Japan's ruling coalition lost the Upper House Election, leading to political uncertainty. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • July 23, 1 p.m.: Hedera (HBAR) mainnet upgrades to version 0.63. The process is expected to take about 40 minutes, during which network users may experience temporary disruptions.
  • July 23-24: The Root Network (ROOT) mainnet will undergo a technical upgrade (v11.79.0) affecting NFT ownership data storage, requiring some 24 hours of downtime for NFT-related operations like minting, bridging, transferring and marketplace activity to support improved performance and scalability for large-scale collections.
• Macro
  • July 21, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases June producer price inflation data.
    • PPI MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. -0.5%
    • PPI YoY Prev. 1.2%
  • July 22, 8:30 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell delivers opening remarks at the Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks Conference in Washington D.C. Livestream link.
  • July 22, 1:00 p.m.: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman speaks on innovation at the same conference. Livestream link.
  • Aug. 1, 12:01 a.m.: New U.S. tariffs take effect on imports from trading partners that failed to reach agreements by the July 9 deadline. These increased duties could range from 10% to as high as 70%, impacting a wide range of goods.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • July 23: Tesla (TSLA), post-market, $0.42
  • July 29: PayPal Holdings (PYPL), pre-market, $1.29
  • July 30: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market, $0.30
  • July 31: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market, $1.35
  • July 31: Reddit (RDDT), post-market, $0.19
  • Aug. 5: Galaxy Digital (GLXY), pre-market

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Aavegotchi DAO is voting on a $245,000 funding proposal to expand Gotchi Battler into a revenue-generating game with PvE modes, NFTs and battle passes, aiming to reverse declining player numbers, boost GHST utility and create sustainable rewards. Voting ends July 22.
  • Ethereum Name Service DAO is voting on a proposal from Tally to enter a one-year renewable agreement to enhance ENS governance. Voting ends July 22.
  • Rocket Pool DAO is voting to finalize Saturn 1’s implementation. Approval by a 75% supermajority will ratify key protocol changes, including new transaction designs and a potential revenue share to the pDAO treasury. Voting ends July 24.
  • Aavegotchi DAO is voting on funding three new features for the official decentralized application: a Wearable Lendings UI, Gotchis Batch Lending, and a BRS Optimizer. Voting ends July 29.
  • NEAR Protocol is voting on potentially reducing NEAR’s inflation from 5% to 2.5%. Two-thirds of validators must approval the proposal for it to pass, and if so it could be implemented by late Q3. Voting ends Aug. 1.
  • July 29, 10 a.m.: Ether.fi to host a bi-quarterly analyst call.
• Unlocks
  • July 25: VENOM$0.05445 to unlock 2.84% of its circulating supply worth $12.68 million.
  • July 31: OP$0.3063 to unlock 1.79% of its circulating supply worth $24.8 million.
  • Aug. 1: SUI$1.5299 to unlock 1.27% of its circulating supply worth $175.54 million.
  • Aug. 2: ENA$0.2617 to unlock 0.64% of its circulating supply worth $20.06 million.
  • Aug. 9: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.3% of its circulating supply worth $15.91 million.
  • Aug. 12: APT$1.7637 to unlock 1.73% of its circulating supply worth $62.09 million.
• Token Launches
  • July 21: TA$0.02994 to be listed on Binance, BingX, MEXC, Gate.io, and others.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through July 17.

• Day 1 of 2: Malaysia Blockchain Week 2025 (Kuala Lumpur)
• July 24: Decasonic’s Web3 Investor Day 2025 (Chicago)
• July 25: Blockchain Summit Global (Montevideo, Uruguay)
• July 28-29: TWS Conference 2025 (Singapore)
• Aug. 6-7: Blockchain.Rio 2025 (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
• Aug. 6-10: Rare EVO (Las Vegas)
• Aug. 7-8: bitcoin++ (Riga, Latvia)
• Aug. 9-10: Baltic Honeybadger 2025 (Riga, Latvia)
• Aug. 9-10: Conviction 2025 (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• Conflux’s native token CFX surged as much as 115% in the past 24 hours, briefly touching $0.24 — a price level last seen in December — amid renewed bullish momentum tied to major ecosystem announcements.
• The weekend rally was sparked by a Conflux-hosted event in Shanghai, where the team unveiled a new stablecoin pegged to the offshore yuan and the forthcoming Conflux 3.0 upgrade. The developments that were amplified by Chinese state media, lending credibility and national exposure.
• Trading volume exploded to $1.7 billion over 24 hours, a sharp jump from under $60 million just two days prior, as Asian traders flooded into the token amid speculation Conflux could benefit from increased regional adoption.
• With a market cap now above $1.09 billion, CFX has reentered the top 120 cryptocurrencies by size, marking a dramatic comeback for the project often referred to as “China’s Ethereum” in crypto circles.
• The new stablecoin, developed in partnership with AnchorX and Eastcompeace Technology, will be pegged to the offshore yuan (CNH) and targeted at cross-border payments along China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) corridors — a niche that aligns with the Beijing government’s strategic priorities.
• The upgrade, scheduled for August, promises throughput of up to 15,000 transactions per second (TPS) and aims to support real-world asset issuance and cross-border settlement use cases, positioning the network as a potential infrastructure layer for China-linked Web3 applications.
• This isn’t the first time Conflux has rallied on China-aligned headlines; the token previously spiked on news of a partnership with China Telecom to develop blockchain-enabled SIM cards and past collaborations with McDonald’s China and the Shanghai government on metaverse pilots.
• Conflux continues to differentiate itself by marketing as “China’s only regulatory-compliant public chain”, making it a recurring favorite among traders seeking geopolitical narratives and localized infrastructure bets within the crypto space.

Derivatives Positioning

• BTC futures open interest holds steady at 700K BTC as growing investor interest in ether pushes its futures open interest to a record high of 15.21 million ETH.
• Annualized perpetual funding rates in XRP and XMR are nearing 50%, a sign of potential overcrowding in the bullish long positions.
• On Deribit, ether risk reversals show a bias for calls across all tenors, with traders buying bull call spreads in large sizes.
• There is positive dealer gamma build up at the $4,000 strike in ETH, which means that as prices near that level, dealers may trade against the market, arresting price volatility.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 1.06% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $118,675.21 (24hrs: +0.62%)
• ETH is up 7.19% at $3,771.92 (24hrs: +1.97%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 5.5% at 4,155.88 (24hrs: +1.89%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 17bps at 2.95%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0166% (18.177% annualized) on KuCoin

• DXY is down 0.24% at 98.24
• Gold futures are up 0.44% at $3,373.10
• Silver futures are up 0.90% at $38.81
• Nikkei 225 closed down 0.21% at 39,819.11
• Hang Seng closed up 0.68% at 24,994.14
• FTSE is unchanged at 8,989.81
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.41% at 5,337.36
• DJIA closed on Friday down 0.32% at 44,342.19
• S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,296.79
• Nasdaq Composite closed unchanged at 20,895.66
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.27% at 27,314.01
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.92% at 2,577.85
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 5.1 bps at 4.38%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.26% at 6,351.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.28% at 23,290.25
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.23% at 44,643.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 60.82% (unchanged)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.0318 (-0.72%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average) 904 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $59.57
• Total Fees: 3.15 BTC / $373,319
• CME Futures Open Interest: 158,045 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 35.4 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 10.02%

Technical Analysis

• BTC's dominance rate has tanked, convincingly breaching support at 61.89, as traders rotate money into cheaper alternative cryptocurrencies.
• The next support level is seen at around 60.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Friday at $423.22 (-6.23%), +2.01% at $431.73 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $419.78 (+2.2%), +1.6% at $426.49
• Circle (CRCL): closed at $223.78 (-4.81%)
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $27.13 (+4.19%), +9.88% at $29.81
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $19.51 (-2.3%), +1.64% at $19.83
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.86 (+3.98%), +2.09% at $14.15
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $13.35 (-0.89%), +1.12% at $13.50
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $12.78 (-1.54%), +1.49% at $12.97
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $26.75 (-0.3%), +2.69% at $27.47
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $41.24 (-5.41%), +3.76% at $42.79
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $38.1 (+4.96%), +1.1% at $38.52
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $28.98 (-20.38%), +10.08% at $31.90

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: $363.5 million
• Cumulative net flows: $54.73 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.3 million
  

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $402.5 million
• Cumulative net flows: $7.51 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.06 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• Open interest in the CME-listed bitcoin futures remains locked in a sideways range below the 160K BTC mark.
• The narrow band shows that institutional capital is yet to join the latest bull run.

While You Were Sleeping

• Europe Prepares for a U.S. Trade Fight (The Wall Street Journal): The EU is readying its anti-coercion instrument for possible use, with proposed restrictions on U.S. tech firms and their ability to bid on European government contracts if trade talks collapse.
• China Threatens Response to EU Sanctions on Banks, Firms (Bloomberg): The EU sanctioned two Chinese banks for allegedly aiding Russian sanctions evasion via crypto services, prompting Beijing to warn of retaliatory steps to protect its financial institutions.
• Bitcoin's Dominance Slides by Most in 3 Years as BTC's Correlation With Altcoins Weakens (CoinDesk); Bitcoin dominance slid below 61% for the first time since March, marking its steepest drop since June 2022, as the declining correlation with altcoins raised prospects for more volatility and liquidations.
• Ethena's ENA Soars 43%. What's Fueling the Explosive Rally? (CoinDesk): Speculation over the activation of Ethena’s fee switch, approved last November, is fueling the rally by enabling protocol revenue sharing for staked ENA (sENA) holders, Kairos Research said.
• Conflux's CFX Price Doubles on Stablecoin Reveal, Upgrade Plans (CoinDesk): Conflux (CFX) surged 115% to a seven-month high, driven by a yuan-pegged stablecoin targeting Belt and Road corridors and the forthcoming Conflux 3.0 upgrade, both unveiled at a Shanghai event.
• Japan’s Long-Dominant Party Suffers Election Defeat as Voters Swing Right (The New York Times): The ruling LDP coalition lost 19 of its 66 Upper House seats, becoming a minority in both chambers of Parliament, and prompting calls for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to resign.

In the Ether